Data Visualizations
Global trends and projections for tobacco use from 1990 to 2025
About
View the progress any country is making towards reducing tobacco use and achieving global targets set by the World Health Organization (WHO). You can see current tobacco smoking prevalence trends from 1990 to 2010, and projections for 2015 and 2025. Click on a country for more information about its trend over time, its tobacco use reduction target and the probability that it will reach the target by 2025. The trend line includes credible intervals, which indicate the degree of uncertainty around the findings. Click the buttons to change the view between the figures for men and the figures for women.
Note: With this visualization you can view trends in the prevalence of current tobacco use in 178 countries for women, and 173 countries for men, based on data from nationally-representative surveys. Current tobacco use is at least one use, within the past 30 days, of any smoked tobacco product encountered in the surveys, including all types of cigarettes, cigars, pipes, and water pipes. This measure captures globally standard smoking products and local variants as well as both daily and occasional use, an important health risk behavior amongst young people and women in certain settings. Prevalence is measured as the proportion of current tobacco users in the population for the given country, year and sex group. These results are not directly comparable with estimates of country-specific data from other studies due to different definitions of tobacco use, different study types and designs, and differences in age-standardization procedures.
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Citation
Bilano V, Gilmour S, Moffiet T, Tursan d'Espaignet E, Stevens GA, Commar A, Tuyl F, Hudson I, Shibuya K. Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990–2025:an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control. The Lancet. 2015;385(9972):966-76. Available online at:
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960264-1/fulltext
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Data
Data was obtained from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control, which compiles tobacco use data from nationally-representative surveys conducted in individual countries. Prevalence estimates with credible intervals were calculated using a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression modeling approach involving Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. Age-specific estimates were aggregated using the WHO reference standard population to obtain age-standardized overall prevalence estimates for the population 15 years and older by country, sex and year. The credible intervals give an estimate of the region in which there is a 95% probability that the true proportion would lie.